Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.602932 1.666217 1.732021 1.805813 1.886582 1.972677 2.071896
2025-12-07 1.499328 1.579669 1.665695 1.765342 1.878490 2.004105 2.155753
2025-12-14 1.438539 1.530965 1.632157 1.752377 1.892988 2.054497 2.257563
2025-12-21 1.386496 1.487123 1.599226 1.735134 1.898011 2.090568 2.341488
2025-12-28 1.361131 1.471118 1.595781 1.750040 1.939627 2.170756 2.484087
2026-01-04 1.344230 1.463234 1.600319 1.773313 1.991256 2.265349 2.652716
2026-01-11 1.315060 1.439103 1.583745 1.769039 2.007033 2.313907 2.762888
2026-01-18 1.292413 1.421456 1.573688 1.771560 2.030601 2.373138 2.892753
2026-01-25 1.256830 1.386731 1.541113 1.743667 2.012163 2.373215 2.934684
2026-02-01 1.232991 1.365358 1.524005 1.734412 2.017403 2.405609 3.027837
2026-02-08 1.209543 1.343604 1.505466 1.722185 2.017468 2.429933 3.109958
2026-02-15 1.188536 1.324151 1.489025 1.711773 2.019068 2.455956 3.196885
2026-02-22 1.175442 1.314614 1.485359 1.718816 2.046330 2.523406 3.365592
2026-03-01 1.145709 1.283377 1.452907 1.685852 2.014947 2.499290 3.369393
2026-03-08 1.127661 1.266383 1.438252 1.676331 2.016590 2.526069 3.469094
2026-03-15 1.108593 1.247590 1.420664 1.662037 2.010378 2.539691 3.545435
2026-03-22 1.102456 1.245028 1.424047 1.676563 2.047084 2.624671 3.775019
2026-03-29 1.099584 1.246472 1.432592 1.698413 2.095731 2.733432 4.077144
2026-04-05 1.086980 1.234980 1.423540 1.694898 2.105154 2.775881 4.242737
2026-04-12 1.077300 1.227024 1.418935 1.697450 2.123951 2.836064 4.463554
2026-04-19 1.057554 1.205517 1.395547 1.672101 2.097413 2.812607 4.472338
2026-04-26 1.044881 1.193043 1.384098 1.663727 2.097555 2.837903 4.612610
2026-05-03 1.031694 1.179636 1.371059 1.652588 2.092662 2.853349 4.730430